A Lesson in Theory

There’s not always a right and wrong in every hand

Note – This article has more of a theory angle to it than a pure tactics or strategy angle.  Most of my articles are concrete, how-to explanations of poker but this one is a little different.

I still think this article is useful, however, because harnessing a deeper understanding of poker and learning new ways of thinking about it will help you immensely in the long run.  I also got a little sidetracked in this article so you’ll get a little sneak peak into the future topic of applying pot odds to bluffing situations.

Here’s an interesting concept I learned a long time ago in one of the first poker books I ever read.  If I remember correctly, it was one of the older books written by David Sklansky.

Anyways, the concept isn’t obvious until you read about it but after you do, it makes perfect sense.  It’s the idea that two players in a poker hand can make opposing decisions that are both correct.

Example 1

The easiest example that comes to mind comes from limit holdem but we’ll use it anyways because it’s a great demonstration of what I’m talking about.  Let’s say you’re playing $10/$20 limit in a $100 pot against a single opponent.

For the sake of the example, let’s also assume your opponent knows you have a big pair and you know your opponent has a flush draw.  If you bet $20 on the flop, the pot would be $120 and your opponent would have to call $20.  If we take a look at the poker odds chart, you can see this is a good call for him.

Even though you’re betting to protect your hand, it’s still OK for your opponent to call.  But does that mean you shouldn’t bet anyways? Absolutely not!  This is the perfect example because neither you nor your opponent is making an incorrect move.  It’s correct for you to bet and it’s correct for your opponent to call.

By betting you are reducing the odds slightly and getting more money in the pot with a hand that will most likely win the showdown.  Your opponent should call because he’s getting the correct odds to call the bet.  If you didn’t bet at all, your opponent would be getting infinite odds because it would cost him $0 to chase his flush.

Example 2

In no limit holdem, examples of this concept aren’t as obvious because you can control the sizes of your bets to affect the odds however you want.  But just because these examples are harder to find doesn’t mean they don’t exist.

For example, let’s say you’re playing against an opponent with whom you’re quite familiar.  It’s on the river and your opponent has placed one last bet.  You have top pair and a decent kicker but nothing special.  The pot is $100 and your opponent has placed a $25 bet on the river.

Based on your experience with this opponent and the way he has played this hand so far, you estimate that he’s bluffing about 20% of the time and has something better than you 80% of the time.  You obviously don’t know this for sure but you know your opponent well enough to be confident with this estimation.

Back to the hand: Your opponent’s $25 bet makes the pot $125, meaning you’re getting 5:1 pot odds.  If you’re close to being correct on your 20% bluffing figure, this is an easy call.  You’re getting 5:1 on a 4:1 chance of this being a bluff.

This is getting a little off subject but I’d like to break this down real quick to explain why this is a correct call even though you will lose 80% of the time.  The example below will assume you get into this same situation 100 times.

Lose 80 Times

$25 x 80 = $2,000

Win 20 Times

$125 x 20 = 2,500

Total Profit: $2,500 – $2,000 = $500

As you can see, making the fold here would be a mistake.  A fold in this case would cost you about $5 per hand.  If you’re thinking that I cheated by using the entire pot size for my win figure but only the $25 bet in my loss figure, you’re wrong.

Why?  Because what’s already in the pot doesn’t matter – it’s not yours any more.  The only thing that counts is the final outcome.  In this case, you’re either going to lose $25 or win $125.  Poker is about making the best possible decision out of all the options available to you at the moment.

Getting back to the point of all this, if your opponent actually was holding a strong hand in the example, it was just as correct for him to bet as it was for you to call.  In fact, your opponent could have bet a little more to reduce your pot odds, but we’ll get into pot odds and bluffing frequency in a later article.

So there you have it: two examples of both players making opposing but correct poker decisions in the same hand.

If you’re feeling smart after reading this article, try the tables at Full Tilt Poker.

If you want more solid, concrete poker strategy, check out my poker e-book.