Breakdown of a Small Stakes Hand

Today’s article will be a breakdown of a small stakes no limit hand. One of our viewers submitted this hand for review so here it goes. The analysis will show some of the thinking we should do when playing a hand.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $0.10 BB (6 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

CO ($4.65)

Button ($5.55)

SB (villain) ($10.70)

BB ($10.70)

UTG ($20.30)

MP ($4.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with As, Kd.

4 folds, SB (villain) completes, BB raises to $0.4, SB (villain) calls $0.20.

Flop: ($0.70) 3c, 5s, Ac (2 players)

villain bets $0.4, Hero raises to $1.8, villain calls $1.40.

Turn: ($4.30) 4h (2 players)

villain checks, Hero bets $3, villain calls $3.

River: ($10.30) 6s (2 players)

villain bets $5.6 (All-In), Hero ??

The first action in this hand was a mistake on the part of the villain who was the small blind. He is out of position and limped in against the big blind. He is giving the BB a free look at the flop and the villain has no idea what the hero could have – he could literally have any two. The villain should have either folded or raised in this spot.

The hero correctly raises with AK offsuit preflop. The villain appears to have a weak hand so the hero would have been correct in raising a wide range of hands. The hero here has the advantage of position so he could either raise a weaker hand as a steal or raise a strong hand for value.

The villain calls the preflop raise and then leads with a weak half pot bet. The hero correctly raises his TPTK for value and to make it unprofitable for the villain to draw and improve whatever hand he has.

The turn doesn’t bring the best card in the world but it’s pretty unlikely the villain has a two for the straight. He hasn’t played the hand in such a way that would make a two very likely. Not even weak opponents will often play hands with twos. The only realistic possibility of a two is if the villain is holding a pair of twos. The villain’s range of hands is very wide and it includes a possible flush draw/weaker ace so the hero is correct in betting somewhere between $3-$4 here.

The viewer who submitted this hand for review also indicated that he had the villain registered at 35/13 over about 100 hands. If you don’t know what this mean, you NEED to get yourself a copy of Holdem Manager. The price is well worth what you will get out of this program. It has literally paid for itself hundreds of times over for me.

35/13 means the villain is playing 35% of his hands and raising preflop 13% of the time. The more hands you have logged, the more accurate the stats will be. The villain is playing a few too many hands and not raising preflop enough. He should be playing fewer hands and raising more often preflop. Ideal stats would be closer to 22/19 or something in that general area. The villain’s stats aren’t completely fishy however so it makes a single 2 unlikely.

When the villain calls this $3 turn bet we need make an effort at putting him on a range of hands. The open limp preflop, the weak call on the flop, and the check/call on the turn indicates a weak hand for the villain. There are two extra things that reinforce the idea of a weak hand. First of all, this board is bad for slowplaying. From the villain’s perspective not only is there a possible straight draw and a flush draw but there is also an ace on the flop that very likely could have hit the hero’s hand. If the villain is slowplaying something with all these factors in place, it’s a very bad move.

We can’t totally rule out a strong hand but we can safely say that it’s unlikely. If the villain checks again on the river, I would suggest putting a modest value bet out there to catch some weaker hands that don’t believe us.

The river brings another not-so-great card, the 6 of spades. Suddenly the villain wakes up and pushes the rest of his stack in, giving the hero 3-1 on a call. This is a tough spot because the hero only needs to call $5.6 into a $16 pot and the obvious flush draw just missed but the board has gotten pretty ugly. So we are getting good odds, a possible missed flush draw and an ugly board. It’s time to think again.

There are several factors that make me lean toward a fold. First of all, the villain played this hand extra passive the entire way down and then suddenly woke up and shoved a big bet in the middle. While it’s possible he’s just bluffing the missed flush draw, it’s not a good sign.

Most people would realize it’s not good to bluff $5 into a $10 pot and hope the opponent can fold getting 3-1. This is especially true when the opponent has been playing his hand very strong so far. Most people, even fish, will have a general idea that this is a bad place to bluff. It’s not impossible but a bluff here is unlikely. People do weird things.

If the villain called with an ace of some sort, we could be in some trouble. Any ace with a kicker of 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 is now beating us. On top of that the villain could have a small connector like 45, 56, or 67. Another possibility is that the villain started out on a flush draw with a hand like A2 or 78 and accidentally backed into the straight. On top of that, any pair 22-77 is now beating us.

The range of likely hands we beat is A8, A9, AT, AJ, and AQ. If the villain had one of those hands, it’s unlikely he would have played it so weak all the way down and then suddenly slammed a big bet on a scary river. It doesn’t look too promising so I go for the fold. The actual Hero in this hand folded as well and it was a good play. He played this hand as optimally as possible. He didn’t make money on this particular hand but if he continues to play like this, he will make money in these situations in the long run.

It probably looks weird that a single hand can have so much written about it. It’s not going to be such a detailed process when you’re actually playing. What made this hand a little bit easier than some was that there were so many hands beating us and so few realistic hands that we were beating. The only chance at winning this pot was to catch a bad bluff.

If you noticed, I used words like “unlikely,” “could have,” and “possibility” a lot. That’s because we can never be 100% sure on what the opponent has until we see the showdown. The important thing is to be right more often than you are wrong. If you base your poker decisions on logic and get it right a little more often than you get it wrong, the money will come.

Better luck next time Hero.